Unfortunately, I did not get to blog about my predictions before Semi Final 2, but I managed a decent 8/10. I thought Slovenia and Croatia would make it instead of Malta and Lithuania, but I guess that would have been too ambitious to assume that all ex-Yugoslav republics would qualify from the same Semi.
Be it as it may, here is my review of the situation in the Final. As the draw happened, a lot has changed and this is clearly reflected in dimished likelihood of some countries to do well, and the improved chances of others. Without further ado, here we go:
I am still a bit dumbfound how this managed to sneak through to the Final. While it is a good song, it just doesn't have the 'umph' that it needs. I think this must have been passed by the juries, but being sandwiched in between the UK and Albania, this will be forgotten easily. The song is rather forgettable as it is, and that won't help having two more memorable songs behind and in front of it. The "2nd place curse" will definitely come true in this year's final.
Prediction: 22 - 26 place
I've already expressed my love for this song before, and especially after Semi 1 and seeing her performance, this is one of the highlights of ESC 2012 for me. Spotless vocals, emotional rendition and visually appealing -what else could one want. This should do amazingly with the juries, but you never know, might be a bit too much for many jurors too. This will probably suffer from its ballad-stricken beginning, though, in my opinion, it will stand out from all of them, since it's got the best vocals in the entire contest. This is by far Albania's best entry, and I would love to see it in the Top 10. However, being realistic, this will probably not even come close to that. Not quite as instant as most songs, and quite unattainable for people to sing along, this will have to be satisfied with the right side of the scoreboard, unfortunately. Still, one of my favourites, but cannot see it cracking the Top 10.
Prediction: 15 - 20 place
Not quite sure how this managed to qualify - I guess the late draw helped it remain memorable, especially after the rather static Bosnia & Herzegovina. I feel as if this will end like last year's Lithuanian entry that caused so much resentment by the fan community. This year's song, at least, is a decent song that the I am sure was voted in through the televote and jury combined. However, this will be lost in the beginning ballads, especially due to Albania before it. Plus, Lithuania never did really well in Eurovision, with the exception of 2006, when they had a joke entry. Better luck next year.
Prediction: 20 - 24 place
I was very happy to see Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify from the Semi Final, but I was actually a bit underwhelmed by Maya's vocals that night. I'm sure, now that she's qualified, she will perform with her full energy in the Final, but I am not sure whether this will do much to help the Bosnian entry. It is too slow, and it would have had a hard time doing much as it is, but being lumped together with 5 ballads (and being the last one in the line-up) will definitely hurt it. The song doesn't have catchy hook or anything, and the performance is rather dark and static - and none of these things help it with the televote. I think, still, it might do better than all of them (except for the UK) simply because Bosnia and Herzegovina has proved to have very good friends (ex-Yugoslavia, Albania, Turkey) and an extremely active diaspora (Germany, Austria, Sweden, France, Switzerland), so it should do decently enough with a few points from here and there. Possibly the worst placement since 1998 (was 18th), and in the best-case scenario since 2003 (was 16th).
Prediction: 15 - 20 place
Now, while Russia was one of my Top 3 for the Semi Final, now it is also in the Top 5 for me. Why? Well, it is the first upbeat song after 5 ballads, and it will stick out easily. Plus, as we've seen across Europe, people LOVE the Babushke, and they will do amazingly well with the televote, possibly even winning it. Not so sure about the juries, but I am quite sure that they will not be left out completely by the juries, like Russia's last year's performance was. The jurors have to look at hit-potential, too, and this has MAJOR potential for that. While vocally weak, it is a fun, cute, energetic song that will draw in the masses, and get jury support from the Eastern bloc. Definitely one of the top contenders, and one should keep an eye out for those grannies.
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (potential winner)
And back to the ballads. This is a very good song, I really like it. It was also staged rather effectively, creating a rather appealing visual presentations. Vocally, Gréta and Jónsi are great, and as we've seen in the Semi Final, they can carry the song quite well. My biggest issue with the performance was how intensely scary Jónsi looked throughout the song, while Gréta's grinning made her look kind of dumb in comparison to him. I hope they fix that, because it was rather distracting (I had people laugh out loud in the Eurovision-watching party I hosted). That being said, it's a good song, but not sure how much it can do post-Babushke. Should do decently, but not as good as the fans are hoping.
Prediction: 10 - 15 place
Originally, I really did not like this song at all. However, it surely grew on me. My problem was how repetitive it was and how lyrically impaired the song was. Now, however, the catchiness factor has taken over the repetitiveness in my head and I quite enjoy it. I thought Ivi and her crew did an excellent job in the Semi Final and they deservingly qualified with a great performance with some slick dancing and visuals. How well can this hope to do in the Final? Not sure, to be honest. It is catchy, and it's got a decent enough draw. It is the second upbeat song in the first half, and there is a whole slew of upbeat songs later on (#14-18). The effect can be either it'll stick out and get more votes, or it will be forgotten since it's so far back down on the draw. I'd rather give the benefit of doubt to Cyprus and say that this will be a good thing for them!
Prediction: 10 - 15 place
The French song this year is a rather good pop tune, with both English and French lyrics. Anggun is a good vocalist, and she has a great stage presence, which is great. The performance that the French are going for, however, is a bit of a mess. There is too much going on, including some shirtless male dancers, which all indicates that they are putting a lot of emphasis on the presentation, which makes it all look a bit too cluttered. France has had really bad luck lately, with the exception of the amazing Patricia Kaas in 2009. I'm afraid that this won't do all that well, since it's next to the upbeat Cyprus and followed by the superb Italian entry. Unfortunately, this will end up also on the latter half of the scoreboard.
Prediction: 15 - 20 place
Italy came a surprise 2nd place last year, unexpectedly winning the jury vote by a wide margin (69 points in front of 2nd placed Azerbaijan), but ending up 11th with the televotes, for a combined placement of 2nd place. This year, Italy has a song that has great potential to win both of the votes. The fresh, spicy charm of Nina is evident in her performance and the excellent, classy staging just emphasises how great the song is. The messiness of France before it only helps Italy to come across as an even better song. Once again, Italy's managed to seamlessly intertwine English and Italian lyrics without taking anything way from the song, but strengthening it instead. Excellent song, excellent singer, and excellent performance. It'd be nice if the song had come later in the draw, but I think this could still go for the win. A definite top 5 placement!
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (potential winner)
Well, here we have one of the best vocalists of the competition. Ott managed to wow us all in the Semi Final with his vocal abilities, but has cause considerable confusion with the press since no one knows how he'll perform his song. Allegedly, he sings differently at every rehearsal and now there have been over 11 versions of his song. Either way he chooses, it seems as if he will perform it excellently. The song is beautiful and it is one of my favourite Estonian entries, after the amazing "Rändajad" in 2009, which managed an excellent 6th place. Performing right after Italy will take away points from it, probably, but this should do decently enough. Ott is rather photogenic and handsome, so he will get some of the girl/gay vote in with that, too. Good song and good performer with an adequate and appropriate performance.
Prediction: 12 - 16 place
The Nordics have sent us a fleet of excellent songs this year, and Norway is one of them. The great upbeat dance/ethnic/pop song by Tooji is rather addicting and should do rather well with the televote audience. He dance routine is slick and looks great on the screen, and the background has been utilised very well. The only problem Tooji faces is a split vote with Denmark and Sweden, which are both strong songs and are Nordic countries too. They all differ strongly, but the Nordic-voting-bloc will probably put Norway 3rd out of the three in my opinion. Also, Tooji has the weakest vocals of the three, which are rather shaky at times. This will hurt him with the juries, but should still do decently. Originally, I thought this was a definite Top 10, but now I am not quite as sure. Should do reasonably well, though.
Prediction: 10 - 15 place
Since its first participation at ESC in 2008, Azerbaijan has constantly been in the Top 10, including last year's victory by Elli/Nikki. Sabina will most probably continue this positive trend for Azerbaijan, with a ballad that is vocally slightly reminiscent of Safura's "Drip Drop" from 2010, but actually more 'Azeri' musically. The Azeris use some great ethnic sounds in their song, kind of like the late 2000s typical Balkan ballads. Sabina has great vocals, though her pronunciation is spotty sometimes. Her performance is visually amazing, and Azerbaijan has made sure to do something new and note-worthy for their entry. This should do very well, especially after Tooji's fast-paced song and Romania following it. Usually, Sabina is great vocally, so if she can pull it off on the big night, this should be a Top 10 qualifier, once again for Azerbaijan.
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
This is by far one of my favourite songs for the entire competition. However, they have a problem now - they are the start of a row of female, upbeat favourites. Followed by Denmark, Greece, Sweden, and then also the upbeat Turkish song, this is the 'fast section' of the contest, and this might hurt the chances of all the songs in it. However, I think Romania should do really well once again. Romania's done pretty well n the last decade with four Top 10 placements (including two 3rd places). This could and definitely should do at least equally well. Extremely catchy song with good vocals, and very entertaining presentation - it has everything going for it. Being that it is in Spanish is has semblances of a summer hit, which I am sure it will become on the beaches of the Mediterranean. Spanish also helps it ensure the Spanish vote, but also other Romance languages (Italy, France, Portugal, etc.). It is just a great song with a great performance and it's got everything going for it. It is also helped by the fact that Denmark, which is following it, is a completely different type of song, despite being fast-paced. Definite Top 10, possible Top 3.
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (potential winner)
Another great song by Denmark this year, similar to the Swedish Anna Bergendahl's "This is my life" two years ago. Obviously, Soluna has been more successful than Anna already, managing to qualify to the Final. This has a great vibe to it as a song, and the performance follows and shows that rather faithfully. Simple presentation (thought very well planned and executed) only helps the song. Very hipster-like, it will get a lot of the younger voters and should do rather well with the juries, too. It is a quality song that stays with you, due to good vocals and a memorable chorus. Should do pretty good on the night - I'd say it's a definite Top 10 contender, too.
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
This song has grown on me with time, as well as the performance. It's fun, it's catchy, and it's dancy. On the other hand, it is typical, predictable and that great of a song. It is the usual Greek Eurovision export, but I am afraid that that still works pretty well with the crowds. While I feel this is the weakest Greek song in a long time, it still should do decently enough. Since the introduction of the Semi Finals in 2004, Greece has managed to make a great track-record for itself: all 8 songs since then were in the Top 10, including a victory in 2005, and two won Semi Finals (2008, 2011). The best-ranked country in Eurovision, Greece knows what works and what doesn't, or at least so it seems. Will this be the first Greek non-Top 10 song? I'd say it should, but I highly doubt it. That being said, I think it will be in the 2nd half of the Top 10.
Prediction: 8 - 12 place
And now the favourite of the contest. Loreen has done excellently in the Semi Final, with an amazing show and good vocal performance. It is different, fresh, mystical and catchy as hell - the perfect winner, I'd say. The chorus is repetitive, but is not shallow (such as with Greece, for example), but it somehow feels like it's bigger and better than one would give it credit for. I have absolutely been in love with this song from the very first time I've heard it, and I think that that helps a lot - the song is very very instant and you either love it or hate it. Most people seem to love it. Sadly, during the jury performance, Loreen had a problem with swallowing one of the fake snow droplets and coughing just about at the end of the song. Hopefully, this won't kill the jury vote for her, but I think she will most probably either win or be 2nd on the televoting (the Babushka's are still there, remember?), and do similarly with the juries - top 5 probably. Whether that combo will be enough for a victory - maybe. Not sure at this point. But this would be an amazing winner, much better than last year's disappointing Azeri song. Good luck, Loreen!
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (possible winner)
Another strong Eurovision country, Turkey, has gone back to a more 'ethnic' song, which is the proven recipe when it comes to Turkey. However, this is one of the weakest songs Turkey's sent in a while (excluding last year's entry, which was worse and failed to qualify for the Final, for the very first time for Turkey). Can sings in a rather traditional manner, but singing in English that comes off as rather strange. Usually Turkish songs have a wide appeal, but I think this will have to sustain itself on the Turkish diaspora vote (which, bare in mind, is VERY strong) and those people who find the music good, or the performance entertaining. It's very silly and funny, but I don't know - I'd rather not see it in the Top 10, but that's just what might happen in the end. Turkey usually does really good, so this should not be too big of an exception, but it will not do much better than 8th or so, if it makes the Top 10.
Prediction: 8 - 12 place
And now another amazing vocalist. Pastora sings the melodramatic song with INCREDIBLE vocal ability and gives the song its true feel. A rather simple ballad for Spain, it's become the ballad-favourite for the fans, as Sweden is the upbeat-favourite (and overall favourite). Musically and lyrically simple, yet vocally powerful, this should do rather well. The staging is also simple, yet effective, so this will do great, especially considering it will be the first ballad in a while, after 5 fast-paced songs. Whether Spain wants to win or not is irrelevant, since I highly doubt they'll manage to get that high with this song, anyway. However, this should do great with the juries just because of the vocals, but also get some votes since people will be impressed an remember it after all the fast songs. The best position for Spain since the early 2000s, for sure.
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
Well, this is unexpected. Germany has sent a Max-like (2004 German representative) song, but made sure it's way better performed. Max, after all, managed a great 8th place for Germany, so he's not to be dismissed, I guess. However, Roman's song is very very sweet, and very well performed vocally. The staging is simple and focuses really on him. Which is the smartest thing they could have done, since he is a very, very handsome man with beautiful eyes, which he knows how to use in front of the camera. He will be the Eurovision-crush for everyone and this will help his already strong song greatly. This could manage a Top 10, but not sure. The juries should also like it, also, so it should do well overall.
Prediction: 8 - 12 place
This song I did not expect to see in this line-up either. It is a boring, slow 'fastpaced' song, which doesn't really live up to its lyrics at all. I did think that the Maltese did a great job with making a great show for a mediocre song, but I am not sure how much that will fly in the Final. There are so many better songs this year, that it is hard for me to imagine that this will do very well. Then again, it is between ballads, so that might make it stand out (aside from that silly choreography). Nonetheless, I just cannot see this doing very well, just cause it's a weak song, plus Malta doesn't have too many friendly countries to exchange points with, hence a low ranking for Malta.
Prediction: 20 - 24 place
Wow. Kaliopi. While covering this year's Eurovision, I've fallen in love with her. I tried to see as many interviews with her as I could, and she is such a charming, funny woman, just great. Just for that I really want her to do well, and I'm very happy to see Macedonia qualified for the first time in five years - they really deserved it this year. The song is very good - ballad/rock song, with a great transition and good vocals. I thought that Kaliopi was a bit coarse in the Semi, but people seemed to love it. I hope she's back in top form for the Final. However, as much as I love this, it is Macedonia, and traditionally it has had a rather weak placement history. Having a good song will definitely help, and this might get some more points from the juries. Should do decently, but unfortunately not Top 10.
Prediction: 12 - 16 place
I am not sure if it's just me, but I am kind of done with Jedward. While I think this is a good song, I cannot get over the two of them. Their performance is over the top, and while I did predict they'd place, I did not necessarily agree fully after seeing the live performance. They are just overly hyper and it distracts fromt eh song. Not to mention the ridiculous costumes they are wearing. "Lipstick" did great because of its upbeat tempo and great performance, but I feel as if this is a crisis moment for Jedward: how to remain themselves with a totally different type of song? I think that's where they struggle, and while they remain Jedward, they hurt the song itself. I know the Irish have high hopes for this, but I cannot see this going into the Top 10.
Prediction: 12 - 16 place
If any song has benefited from its draw, it's Serbia. While I think it's a good song, I also find it rather predictable and typical for Joksimović. He is still one of the favourites, and I think with performing 24th, that is somewhat warranted for. With an excellent performance and good vocals, and not to mention his popularity with Eurovision fans, but also Serbia's extensive diaspora, this is a definite Top 10 placement for Serbia. Will it win - well, I am not sure, but it's chances have been drastically improved when they drew #24 as their performance spot. I highly doubt it could win, to be honest, but it could do Top 5 definitely.
Prediction: 3 - 6 place
Another country with an excellent Eurovision record, Ukraine was not a surprise as a qualifier. Gaitana performed excellently vocally, and she had a rather fun and effective performance. I am pretty sure this has no chance to win, but it does have a good chance of being in the Top 10. It's fun, catchy and good vocally, plus it will be used for the EuroCup this summer in Ukraine and Poland. As obvious of a PR stunt as it is, it is still a good song, that should do well. I love the trumpet part and how they are emphasised - works very well with Gaitana's vocals. Good performance!
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
While I predicted this to qualify, I never quite got the "fun" that this gimmick is supposed to be. It's ok. It's fun. Vocally decent, but I just don't feel it. I think that Ukraine's killed it before, since they are both upbeat songs, plus people will already have their favourites probably picked at this point. It is by no means a game changer of any kind, and should do relatively poorly, I think.
Prediction: 20 - 26 place
So, with all this taken into consideration, I've realised not all my songs fit my categorisation neatly. Nonetheless, here we go, in the order I think they'll do.
Be it as it may, here is my review of the situation in the Final. As the draw happened, a lot has changed and this is clearly reflected in dimished likelihood of some countries to do well, and the improved chances of others. Without further ado, here we go:
#1 UNITED KINGDOM
Engelbert Humperdinck with "Love will set you free"
The UK has sent a truly beautiful, simple ballad to Eurovision this year, somewhat reminiscent of their 2009 effort with Jade and "My time." It is a great opener for the Final, since it is a slow, classy number, with simple staging and great vocals by Humperdinck. This should fare really well with the juries (just as "My time" did) but not quite as strongly with the televoting public. He's a bit too old for this game, as sad as it is to note, and a lot of the younger crowd won't vote for such a slow song sung by "and old guy." This could, however, get a lot of votes from the older demographic. If everything turns out fine vocally, this could do rather well for the UK this year.
Prediction: 10 - 15 place
#2 HUNGARY
Compact Disco with "Sound of our Hearts"I am still a bit dumbfound how this managed to sneak through to the Final. While it is a good song, it just doesn't have the 'umph' that it needs. I think this must have been passed by the juries, but being sandwiched in between the UK and Albania, this will be forgotten easily. The song is rather forgettable as it is, and that won't help having two more memorable songs behind and in front of it. The "2nd place curse" will definitely come true in this year's final.
Prediction: 22 - 26 place
#3 ALBANIA
Rona Nishliu with "Suus"I've already expressed my love for this song before, and especially after Semi 1 and seeing her performance, this is one of the highlights of ESC 2012 for me. Spotless vocals, emotional rendition and visually appealing -what else could one want. This should do amazingly with the juries, but you never know, might be a bit too much for many jurors too. This will probably suffer from its ballad-stricken beginning, though, in my opinion, it will stand out from all of them, since it's got the best vocals in the entire contest. This is by far Albania's best entry, and I would love to see it in the Top 10. However, being realistic, this will probably not even come close to that. Not quite as instant as most songs, and quite unattainable for people to sing along, this will have to be satisfied with the right side of the scoreboard, unfortunately. Still, one of my favourites, but cannot see it cracking the Top 10.
Prediction: 15 - 20 place
#4 LITHUANIA
Donny Montell with "Love is blind"Not quite sure how this managed to qualify - I guess the late draw helped it remain memorable, especially after the rather static Bosnia & Herzegovina. I feel as if this will end like last year's Lithuanian entry that caused so much resentment by the fan community. This year's song, at least, is a decent song that the I am sure was voted in through the televote and jury combined. However, this will be lost in the beginning ballads, especially due to Albania before it. Plus, Lithuania never did really well in Eurovision, with the exception of 2006, when they had a joke entry. Better luck next year.
Prediction: 20 - 24 place
#5 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
MayaSar with "Korake ti znam"I was very happy to see Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify from the Semi Final, but I was actually a bit underwhelmed by Maya's vocals that night. I'm sure, now that she's qualified, she will perform with her full energy in the Final, but I am not sure whether this will do much to help the Bosnian entry. It is too slow, and it would have had a hard time doing much as it is, but being lumped together with 5 ballads (and being the last one in the line-up) will definitely hurt it. The song doesn't have catchy hook or anything, and the performance is rather dark and static - and none of these things help it with the televote. I think, still, it might do better than all of them (except for the UK) simply because Bosnia and Herzegovina has proved to have very good friends (ex-Yugoslavia, Albania, Turkey) and an extremely active diaspora (Germany, Austria, Sweden, France, Switzerland), so it should do decently enough with a few points from here and there. Possibly the worst placement since 1998 (was 18th), and in the best-case scenario since 2003 (was 16th).
Prediction: 15 - 20 place
#6 RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Buranovskiye Babushki with "Party for everybody"Now, while Russia was one of my Top 3 for the Semi Final, now it is also in the Top 5 for me. Why? Well, it is the first upbeat song after 5 ballads, and it will stick out easily. Plus, as we've seen across Europe, people LOVE the Babushke, and they will do amazingly well with the televote, possibly even winning it. Not so sure about the juries, but I am quite sure that they will not be left out completely by the juries, like Russia's last year's performance was. The jurors have to look at hit-potential, too, and this has MAJOR potential for that. While vocally weak, it is a fun, cute, energetic song that will draw in the masses, and get jury support from the Eastern bloc. Definitely one of the top contenders, and one should keep an eye out for those grannies.
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (potential winner)
#7 ICELAND
Gréta Salóme & Jónsi with "Never forget"And back to the ballads. This is a very good song, I really like it. It was also staged rather effectively, creating a rather appealing visual presentations. Vocally, Gréta and Jónsi are great, and as we've seen in the Semi Final, they can carry the song quite well. My biggest issue with the performance was how intensely scary Jónsi looked throughout the song, while Gréta's grinning made her look kind of dumb in comparison to him. I hope they fix that, because it was rather distracting (I had people laugh out loud in the Eurovision-watching party I hosted). That being said, it's a good song, but not sure how much it can do post-Babushke. Should do decently, but not as good as the fans are hoping.
Prediction: 10 - 15 place
#8 CYPRUS
Ivi Adamou with "La la love"Originally, I really did not like this song at all. However, it surely grew on me. My problem was how repetitive it was and how lyrically impaired the song was. Now, however, the catchiness factor has taken over the repetitiveness in my head and I quite enjoy it. I thought Ivi and her crew did an excellent job in the Semi Final and they deservingly qualified with a great performance with some slick dancing and visuals. How well can this hope to do in the Final? Not sure, to be honest. It is catchy, and it's got a decent enough draw. It is the second upbeat song in the first half, and there is a whole slew of upbeat songs later on (#14-18). The effect can be either it'll stick out and get more votes, or it will be forgotten since it's so far back down on the draw. I'd rather give the benefit of doubt to Cyprus and say that this will be a good thing for them!
Prediction: 10 - 15 place
#9 FRANCE
Anggun with "Echo (You and I)"The French song this year is a rather good pop tune, with both English and French lyrics. Anggun is a good vocalist, and she has a great stage presence, which is great. The performance that the French are going for, however, is a bit of a mess. There is too much going on, including some shirtless male dancers, which all indicates that they are putting a lot of emphasis on the presentation, which makes it all look a bit too cluttered. France has had really bad luck lately, with the exception of the amazing Patricia Kaas in 2009. I'm afraid that this won't do all that well, since it's next to the upbeat Cyprus and followed by the superb Italian entry. Unfortunately, this will end up also on the latter half of the scoreboard.
Prediction: 15 - 20 place
#10 ITALY
Nina Zilli with "L'amore è femmina (Out of love)"
Italy came a surprise 2nd place last year, unexpectedly winning the jury vote by a wide margin (69 points in front of 2nd placed Azerbaijan), but ending up 11th with the televotes, for a combined placement of 2nd place. This year, Italy has a song that has great potential to win both of the votes. The fresh, spicy charm of Nina is evident in her performance and the excellent, classy staging just emphasises how great the song is. The messiness of France before it only helps Italy to come across as an even better song. Once again, Italy's managed to seamlessly intertwine English and Italian lyrics without taking anything way from the song, but strengthening it instead. Excellent song, excellent singer, and excellent performance. It'd be nice if the song had come later in the draw, but I think this could still go for the win. A definite top 5 placement!
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (potential winner)
#11 ESTONIA
Ott Lepland with "Kuula"Well, here we have one of the best vocalists of the competition. Ott managed to wow us all in the Semi Final with his vocal abilities, but has cause considerable confusion with the press since no one knows how he'll perform his song. Allegedly, he sings differently at every rehearsal and now there have been over 11 versions of his song. Either way he chooses, it seems as if he will perform it excellently. The song is beautiful and it is one of my favourite Estonian entries, after the amazing "Rändajad" in 2009, which managed an excellent 6th place. Performing right after Italy will take away points from it, probably, but this should do decently enough. Ott is rather photogenic and handsome, so he will get some of the girl/gay vote in with that, too. Good song and good performer with an adequate and appropriate performance.
Prediction: 12 - 16 place
#12 NORWAY
Tooji with "Stay"The Nordics have sent us a fleet of excellent songs this year, and Norway is one of them. The great upbeat dance/ethnic/pop song by Tooji is rather addicting and should do rather well with the televote audience. He dance routine is slick and looks great on the screen, and the background has been utilised very well. The only problem Tooji faces is a split vote with Denmark and Sweden, which are both strong songs and are Nordic countries too. They all differ strongly, but the Nordic-voting-bloc will probably put Norway 3rd out of the three in my opinion. Also, Tooji has the weakest vocals of the three, which are rather shaky at times. This will hurt him with the juries, but should still do decently. Originally, I thought this was a definite Top 10, but now I am not quite as sure. Should do reasonably well, though.
Prediction: 10 - 15 place
#13 AZERBAIJAN
Sabina Babayeva with "When the music dies"Since its first participation at ESC in 2008, Azerbaijan has constantly been in the Top 10, including last year's victory by Elli/Nikki. Sabina will most probably continue this positive trend for Azerbaijan, with a ballad that is vocally slightly reminiscent of Safura's "Drip Drop" from 2010, but actually more 'Azeri' musically. The Azeris use some great ethnic sounds in their song, kind of like the late 2000s typical Balkan ballads. Sabina has great vocals, though her pronunciation is spotty sometimes. Her performance is visually amazing, and Azerbaijan has made sure to do something new and note-worthy for their entry. This should do very well, especially after Tooji's fast-paced song and Romania following it. Usually, Sabina is great vocally, so if she can pull it off on the big night, this should be a Top 10 qualifier, once again for Azerbaijan.
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
#14 ROMANIA
Mandinga with "Zaleilah"This is by far one of my favourite songs for the entire competition. However, they have a problem now - they are the start of a row of female, upbeat favourites. Followed by Denmark, Greece, Sweden, and then also the upbeat Turkish song, this is the 'fast section' of the contest, and this might hurt the chances of all the songs in it. However, I think Romania should do really well once again. Romania's done pretty well n the last decade with four Top 10 placements (including two 3rd places). This could and definitely should do at least equally well. Extremely catchy song with good vocals, and very entertaining presentation - it has everything going for it. Being that it is in Spanish is has semblances of a summer hit, which I am sure it will become on the beaches of the Mediterranean. Spanish also helps it ensure the Spanish vote, but also other Romance languages (Italy, France, Portugal, etc.). It is just a great song with a great performance and it's got everything going for it. It is also helped by the fact that Denmark, which is following it, is a completely different type of song, despite being fast-paced. Definite Top 10, possible Top 3.
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (potential winner)
#15 DENMARK
Soluna Samay with "Should've known better"Another great song by Denmark this year, similar to the Swedish Anna Bergendahl's "This is my life" two years ago. Obviously, Soluna has been more successful than Anna already, managing to qualify to the Final. This has a great vibe to it as a song, and the performance follows and shows that rather faithfully. Simple presentation (thought very well planned and executed) only helps the song. Very hipster-like, it will get a lot of the younger voters and should do rather well with the juries, too. It is a quality song that stays with you, due to good vocals and a memorable chorus. Should do pretty good on the night - I'd say it's a definite Top 10 contender, too.
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
#16 GREECE
Eleftheria Eleftheriou with "Aphrodisiac"This song has grown on me with time, as well as the performance. It's fun, it's catchy, and it's dancy. On the other hand, it is typical, predictable and that great of a song. It is the usual Greek Eurovision export, but I am afraid that that still works pretty well with the crowds. While I feel this is the weakest Greek song in a long time, it still should do decently enough. Since the introduction of the Semi Finals in 2004, Greece has managed to make a great track-record for itself: all 8 songs since then were in the Top 10, including a victory in 2005, and two won Semi Finals (2008, 2011). The best-ranked country in Eurovision, Greece knows what works and what doesn't, or at least so it seems. Will this be the first Greek non-Top 10 song? I'd say it should, but I highly doubt it. That being said, I think it will be in the 2nd half of the Top 10.
Prediction: 8 - 12 place
#17 SWEDEN
Loreen with "Euphoria"And now the favourite of the contest. Loreen has done excellently in the Semi Final, with an amazing show and good vocal performance. It is different, fresh, mystical and catchy as hell - the perfect winner, I'd say. The chorus is repetitive, but is not shallow (such as with Greece, for example), but it somehow feels like it's bigger and better than one would give it credit for. I have absolutely been in love with this song from the very first time I've heard it, and I think that that helps a lot - the song is very very instant and you either love it or hate it. Most people seem to love it. Sadly, during the jury performance, Loreen had a problem with swallowing one of the fake snow droplets and coughing just about at the end of the song. Hopefully, this won't kill the jury vote for her, but I think she will most probably either win or be 2nd on the televoting (the Babushka's are still there, remember?), and do similarly with the juries - top 5 probably. Whether that combo will be enough for a victory - maybe. Not sure at this point. But this would be an amazing winner, much better than last year's disappointing Azeri song. Good luck, Loreen!
Prediction: 1 - 5 place (possible winner)
#18 TURKEY
Can Bonomo with "Love me back"Another strong Eurovision country, Turkey, has gone back to a more 'ethnic' song, which is the proven recipe when it comes to Turkey. However, this is one of the weakest songs Turkey's sent in a while (excluding last year's entry, which was worse and failed to qualify for the Final, for the very first time for Turkey). Can sings in a rather traditional manner, but singing in English that comes off as rather strange. Usually Turkish songs have a wide appeal, but I think this will have to sustain itself on the Turkish diaspora vote (which, bare in mind, is VERY strong) and those people who find the music good, or the performance entertaining. It's very silly and funny, but I don't know - I'd rather not see it in the Top 10, but that's just what might happen in the end. Turkey usually does really good, so this should not be too big of an exception, but it will not do much better than 8th or so, if it makes the Top 10.
Prediction: 8 - 12 place
#19 SPAIN
Pastora Soler with "Quedate conmigo"And now another amazing vocalist. Pastora sings the melodramatic song with INCREDIBLE vocal ability and gives the song its true feel. A rather simple ballad for Spain, it's become the ballad-favourite for the fans, as Sweden is the upbeat-favourite (and overall favourite). Musically and lyrically simple, yet vocally powerful, this should do rather well. The staging is also simple, yet effective, so this will do great, especially considering it will be the first ballad in a while, after 5 fast-paced songs. Whether Spain wants to win or not is irrelevant, since I highly doubt they'll manage to get that high with this song, anyway. However, this should do great with the juries just because of the vocals, but also get some votes since people will be impressed an remember it after all the fast songs. The best position for Spain since the early 2000s, for sure.
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
#20 GERMANY
Roman Lob with "Standing still"Well, this is unexpected. Germany has sent a Max-like (2004 German representative) song, but made sure it's way better performed. Max, after all, managed a great 8th place for Germany, so he's not to be dismissed, I guess. However, Roman's song is very very sweet, and very well performed vocally. The staging is simple and focuses really on him. Which is the smartest thing they could have done, since he is a very, very handsome man with beautiful eyes, which he knows how to use in front of the camera. He will be the Eurovision-crush for everyone and this will help his already strong song greatly. This could manage a Top 10, but not sure. The juries should also like it, also, so it should do well overall.
Prediction: 8 - 12 place
#21 MALTA
Kurt Calleja with "This is the Night"This song I did not expect to see in this line-up either. It is a boring, slow 'fastpaced' song, which doesn't really live up to its lyrics at all. I did think that the Maltese did a great job with making a great show for a mediocre song, but I am not sure how much that will fly in the Final. There are so many better songs this year, that it is hard for me to imagine that this will do very well. Then again, it is between ballads, so that might make it stand out (aside from that silly choreography). Nonetheless, I just cannot see this doing very well, just cause it's a weak song, plus Malta doesn't have too many friendly countries to exchange points with, hence a low ranking for Malta.
Prediction: 20 - 24 place
#22 FYR MACEDONIA
Kaliopi with "Crno i belo"Wow. Kaliopi. While covering this year's Eurovision, I've fallen in love with her. I tried to see as many interviews with her as I could, and she is such a charming, funny woman, just great. Just for that I really want her to do well, and I'm very happy to see Macedonia qualified for the first time in five years - they really deserved it this year. The song is very good - ballad/rock song, with a great transition and good vocals. I thought that Kaliopi was a bit coarse in the Semi, but people seemed to love it. I hope she's back in top form for the Final. However, as much as I love this, it is Macedonia, and traditionally it has had a rather weak placement history. Having a good song will definitely help, and this might get some more points from the juries. Should do decently, but unfortunately not Top 10.
Prediction: 12 - 16 place
#23 IRELAND
Jedward with "Waterline"I am not sure if it's just me, but I am kind of done with Jedward. While I think this is a good song, I cannot get over the two of them. Their performance is over the top, and while I did predict they'd place, I did not necessarily agree fully after seeing the live performance. They are just overly hyper and it distracts fromt eh song. Not to mention the ridiculous costumes they are wearing. "Lipstick" did great because of its upbeat tempo and great performance, but I feel as if this is a crisis moment for Jedward: how to remain themselves with a totally different type of song? I think that's where they struggle, and while they remain Jedward, they hurt the song itself. I know the Irish have high hopes for this, but I cannot see this going into the Top 10.
Prediction: 12 - 16 place
#24 SERBIA
Željko Joksimović with "Nije ljubav stvar"If any song has benefited from its draw, it's Serbia. While I think it's a good song, I also find it rather predictable and typical for Joksimović. He is still one of the favourites, and I think with performing 24th, that is somewhat warranted for. With an excellent performance and good vocals, and not to mention his popularity with Eurovision fans, but also Serbia's extensive diaspora, this is a definite Top 10 placement for Serbia. Will it win - well, I am not sure, but it's chances have been drastically improved when they drew #24 as their performance spot. I highly doubt it could win, to be honest, but it could do Top 5 definitely.
Prediction: 3 - 6 place
#25 UKRAINE
Gaitana with "Be my guest"Another country with an excellent Eurovision record, Ukraine was not a surprise as a qualifier. Gaitana performed excellently vocally, and she had a rather fun and effective performance. I am pretty sure this has no chance to win, but it does have a good chance of being in the Top 10. It's fun, catchy and good vocally, plus it will be used for the EuroCup this summer in Ukraine and Poland. As obvious of a PR stunt as it is, it is still a good song, that should do well. I love the trumpet part and how they are emphasised - works very well with Gaitana's vocals. Good performance!
Prediction: 5 - 10 place
#26 MOLDOVA
Pasha Parfeny with "Lautar"While I predicted this to qualify, I never quite got the "fun" that this gimmick is supposed to be. It's ok. It's fun. Vocally decent, but I just don't feel it. I think that Ukraine's killed it before, since they are both upbeat songs, plus people will already have their favourites probably picked at this point. It is by no means a game changer of any kind, and should do relatively poorly, I think.
Prediction: 20 - 26 place
So, with all this taken into consideration, I've realised not all my songs fit my categorisation neatly. Nonetheless, here we go, in the order I think they'll do.
|
Place
|
Draw
|
Place
|
Country
|
|
1.
|
6
|
1 - 5
|
Russia
|
|
2.
|
17
|
1 - 5
|
Sweden
|
|
3.
|
10
|
1 - 5
|
Italy
|
|
4.
|
14
|
1 – 5
|
Romania
|
|
5.
|
24
|
3 – 6
|
Serbia
|
|
6.
|
15
|
5 – 10
|
Denmark
|
|
7.
|
25
|
5 – 10
|
Ukraine
|
|
8.
|
19
|
5 – 10
|
Spain
|
|
9.
|
13
|
5 – 10
|
Azerbaijan
|
|
10.
|
16
|
8 - 12
|
Greece
|
|
11.
|
20
|
8 - 12
|
Germany
|
|
12.
|
18
|
8 - 12
|
Turkey
|
|
13.
|
1
|
10 - 15
|
United Kingdom
|
|
14.
|
8
|
10 - 15
|
Cyprus
|
|
15.
|
12
|
10 - 15
|
Norway
|
|
16.
|
23
|
12 - 16
|
Ireland
|
|
17.
|
7
|
10 - 15
|
Iceland
|
|
18.
|
11
|
12 - 16
|
Estonia
|
|
19.
|
22
|
12 - 16
|
FYR Macedonia
|
|
20.
|
5
|
15 - 20
|
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
|
21.
|
3
|
15 - 20
|
Albania
|
|
22.
|
26
|
20 - 26
|
Moldova
|
|
23.
|
9
|
15 - 20
|
France
|
|
24.
|
21
|
20 - 24
|
Malta
|
|
25.
|
4
|
20 - 24
|
Lithuania
|
|
26.
|
2
|
22 - 26
|
Hungary
|
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