Semi Final 1: Pre-Performance Predictions

Out of the two Semi Finals, the first one seems to be the less messy one. That being said, it is also the less exciting one. According to the bookies (as of today, May 11th) Denmark is the most likely to qualify for the final (1/20), followed by Iceland, Romania, Greece, Russia, Ireland, Moldova, Cyprus, Albania and Israel as the last one of the top 10. When we are looking for the victory ticket, Russia seems to be in the lead with 5/2, closely followed by Denmark with 9/4 and Iceland and Romania with 7.

My predictions are strangely similar to the ones that the bookies have put forward. But, as it always is with Eurovision, I am sure things will change quite a bit considering we still have no idea about how the performances are going to look. They can, quite often, either break (Slovakia in 2010) or make (Belarus 2010) the song and its placement on the final charts. Without further ado, this are my pre-performance rankings for Semi Final 1 in order of performance.

#1: MONTENEGRO

Rambo Amadeus with "Euro Neuro"

The latest Balkan country to join Eurovision has had a rough time with the contest so far. Of its three previous entries, the last one, "Just get out of my head" by Andrea Demirović in 2009, was the most successful one with its 11th placing in the first semi final. An interesting coincidence is that they both are opening the first semi final on both occasions, and I believe they will both share the same faith: no qualification for Montenegro, yet again.

While Rambo Amadeus is rather famous in ex-Yugoslavia, the reasons for his fame are rather strange. What goes in his favour: being primarily famous for being silly and outlandish, and having coined the term "turbo-folk" for a musical genre in the former Yugoslavia. His song, "Euro Neuro" is also definitely different from all other songs in this year's contest in general, let alone the semi final alone. However, it is too strange and non-mainstream that it will probably pass Eurovision audiences unnoticed. His vocals are, well, not really vocals since he is basically reciting to music. The juries won't buy this, and I'm afraid the audiences won't either. The only votes it might get are from neighbouring Albania and potentially places such as Austria and Switzerland, where there is a big ex-Yugoslavian diaspora, that might know of him.

Place: 15/18

Qualifies: NO

#2: ICELAND

Greta Salóme and Jónsi with "Never Forget"

Iceland has opted for a moody ballad duo, with the relatively inexperienced Greta and the Eurovision veteran Jónsi, who represented Iceland back in 2004, but failed to make the cut to the final. This attempt, however, seems to be much better than the previous one. The ballad is haunting, with excellent music and very good vocal performances by both singers. If they can keep it as good vocally live as it is in the studio version and the performance is simple and haunting as the video is (if it looks anything like Estonia's "Rändajad" in 2009, it'll be great), they are going to have a smooth way into the final. Not the best we've seen from Iceland, but definitely not the worst either.

Place: 8/18

Qualifies: YES

#3: GREECE

Eleftheria Eleftheriou with "Aphrodisiac"

It is hard not to draw comparisons between Eleftheria's song and the one from Kalomoira back in 2008, "Secret Combination." At this point, this is almost stereotypically a Greek song: Greek pop music, pretty girl dancing around, love-inspired lyrics. While I thought that this method wouldn't work for Kalomoira, I was wrong. Eleftheria might have a harder job convincing the public, since she doesn't seem (to me) to be quite as charismatic, but that won't be a problem. This is one of the favourites and it can expect some points across the board. It sure helps having Cyprus and Albania in the same semi, since they traditionally give high points to Greece (with Cyprus' 12 points guaranteed for decades now). Hopefully the performance will be a bit better and more funds invested in it, but as it stands now, it shouldn't have any problems qualifying.

Place: 5/18

Qualifies: YES

 #4: LATVIA

 Anmary with "Beautiful Song"

Latvia has had a mixed history with Eurovision, but this song will definitely lead it again towards the bottom. Gosh, this is just horrible. Including Eurovision references into ones' songs is not the best of ideas, especially when most of the audience will, actually, not know much about them. The melody is catchy, but is so artificial and repetitive that is gets quite annoying pretty fast. Definitely one of the worst songs of the year. It really has virtually no chance to qualify. Better luck next year.

Place: 18/18

Qualifies: NO

#5: ALBANIA

Rona Nishliu with "Suus"

I am obsessed with this song. So powerful, so moving, and so effective. This has some semblance to Albania's song from 2008, "Zemrën e lamë peng" by Olta Boka, which did wonderfully in Belgrade. It is going to be hard for Albania to do much in the final, I think, but in the semi final it will surely stand out above other songs. It is only helped by the horridness that Latvia is before it, and Romania's fast rhythm coming right after. Perfectly performed vocally and if it is anything as interesting as the video, this will definitely do well in the semi final. This is a strong contender to get the jury's vote, or at least get ranked really highly. It is a singer's song, and Nishliu takes it for what it's worth. Excellent effort from Albania this year. 12 points!

Place: 7/18

Qualifies: YES

#6: ROMANIA

Mandinga with "Zaleilah"

This is going to be a summer hit in Europe -- you've heard it here first!  Romania keeps on surprising me positively quite often, and Mandinga's song is another one of those examples. With great summery beats, interesting use of bagpipes, and sexy vocals by Elena Ionecu, this is a bullet-proof song by Romania. It has everything it needs to do excellently. If the live performance is good vocally, and has an interesting enough visually, Romania might be once again getting into the Top 5, with the possibility of having to go to Bucharest in 2013. This is absolutely my favourite song in this semi final and I think it will take it by storm. Its position amongst ballads and slow songs guarantees it a good spot, if not even the victory. Definitely my personal favourite for the semi. Let's hope for the best. 12 points to Romania!

Place: 1/18 (Winner!)

Qualifies: YES

#7: SWITZERLAND

Sinplus with "Unbreakable"

For some reason, Switzerland manages to usually bring really uneventful songs to Eurovision. Last year's song was an exception with the excellent Anna Rossinelli. This year, again, the Swiss have gone rather uneventful pop band style, just like they did with the Lovebugs in 2009. This is just plain boring. It's ironic that the lyrics are "rock this place," when the song does quite the opposite - puts the place to sleep. It is almost like a washed-out version of the typical Danish pop songs that make it to Eurovision. It is going to probably get some points from fans of such music, but that won't quite cut it I'd say.

Place: 11/18

Qualifies: NO

#8: BELGIUM

Iris with "Would you?"

Since the semi finals system came to life in 2004, Belgium has only managed to qualify once. That one song, "Me and my Guitar" by Tom Dice is most likely to remain the only Belgian song to qualify to the final. Iris' song sounds like a Katy Perry ballad, except without the energy that Perry can bring to a song. It is rather flat, and not very engaging song. It is nice to hear as a background/ambiance song, but it won't stick in anyone's ear. It is a nice song, but it won't cut it this year. Sorry Belgium.

Place: 12/18

Qualifies: NO

#9: FINLAND

Pernilla Karlsson with "När jag blundar"

Finland is back in form again, and not in a good way. Finland used to be known as having one of the worst track records at Eurovision, until Lordi's victory in 2006. However, Karlsson's song, while very nice and strange, does not offer much in respect of good placing. A pleasant ballad as it may be, it won't stir to many people into voting for it. It doesn't help that is in a row with Switzerland (slow paced pop song) and Belgium, followed by Israel which is also relatively slow paced. I feel as if this middle chunk of the songs (#7 to #11) won't really make it to the final, both on artistic and logistical merit. Finland will be sitting out this final, though it's nice that they've chosen a song in Swedish, since Sweden is performing in English. Too bad that Sweden is not in the same semi final.

Place: 14/18

Qualifies: NO

#10: ISRAEL

Izabo with "Time"

I have highly enjoyed all of Israel's entries since 2008, but Izabo managed to kill that streak for me. It is just so...pretentious in its non-pretentiousness. I know that sounds strange, but I just cannot imagine this going down well with the audiences. It reminds me of "Algo pequenito," Spain's 2010 entry. Just, it's nowhere near as good. The vocals are so high pitched with everyone, really, that the song is almost annoying. I have a hard time understanding some of the lyrics, and the music is quite repetitive. 

Place: 13/18

Qualifies: NO

#11: SAN MARINO

Valentina Monetta with "The Social Network Song"

Arguably, San Marino has provided us with one of the most entertaining entries of the year. Originally called "Facebook," the Sanmarinese song was penned by Eurovision veteran Ralph Siegel. After more than a dozen songs for Germany, and some for Luxembourg, Switzerland and Montenegro, he decided to help the poorly placed ESC newcomers. Sadly, he hasn't been successful at Eurovision himself since 1999. While this song is a parody (or so the Sanmarinese broadcaster claims), it is still a bit too much to take seriously and seriously lacks any artistic merit. I am rather curious what the performance will entail, since any semblance of Facebook won't be tolerated by the EBU, so they have to think of another concept. Last year's beautiful ballad from San Marino was much more worthier of a representative, but nowhere near as  much publicity-raising or providing of entertainment value. While this has almost no chance to pass to the final, it's still good television (hopefully).

Place: 17/18

Qualifies: NO

#12: CYPRUS

Ivi Adamou with "La la love"

Cyprus has done pretty poorly since their excellent song "Stronger every minute" in 2005. This year, Cyprus seems to have been getting quite a bit of fan-support, but I am not sure whether that'll be enough for it to place well. Well, it will place well in the semi final and pass to the final - that much I am convinced of. Ivi is great looking girl, and she seems to have quite a striking stage presence. The song's repetitive chorus helps the song, which is otherwise lyrically weak. The club beats are also a potential draw and might distract from Romania's far superior composition. Nonetheless, I don't think Cyprus will be that big of a threat to Romania or Greece on the Top 5 podium. That being said, depending on the vocal performance and how slick the visuals are, this might do much better than I give it credit for. Or, it might be horrible and sink further. For now, I'd say a solid qualifier, despite the fact that I don't particularly like the song.

Place: 6/18

Qualifies: YES

#13: DENMARK

Soluna Samay with "Should have known better"

Denmark has done remarkably well the last two years, placing 4th and 5th after a streak in the middle of the scoreboard. It seems, once again, that Denmark will stay within the Top 10 in the Final, since this is sailing through to the final without any problems. Well, while I am confident that it is a great song, so was everyone in 2010 with Anna Bergedahl for Sweden and she failed to qualify for the final. For some reason, European audiences did not quite feel her performance, but Soluna might be an exception. Not only has she a great stage presence, her voice is very pure and compliments the musical arrangement perfectly. Somehow almost typically Danish at this point, but also somehow different, the song manages to creep under ones' skin pretty easily. This is a possible contender for the win in this semi final, but not sure about the final. It definitely has Top 10 potential, and I think it will live up to it. Good luck, Denmark! 12 points

Place: 3/18

Qualifies: YES

#14: RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Buranovskiye Babushki with "Party for Everybody"

Russia has prepared another show for us this year. Buranovskiye Babushki have become the most famous act so far in the entire pre-contest season, even getting interviewed by the BBC World News upon their victory over Dima Bilan in the Russian national final. This song is a definitely qualifier just due to its context and performance. Six extremely cute grandmothers singing in broken English and their native Udmurt language - how could one say no to that? While I do not see it as a winner in this semi final (Romania's too strong), once it passes to the Final, it has a strong chance of taking the throne and taking the contest back to Russia again. After three years of no Top 10 placements for Russia, they can already look forward to their latest one. Whether it's going to be a second victory for Russia is yet to be seen, since they have some stiff competition. Nonetheless, excellent show and a genuinely heart-warming song.

Place: 2/18

Qualifies: YES

#15: HUNGARY

Compact Disco with "Sound of our Hearts"

From being last year's fan favourite to being one of the least memorable songs of the year, Hungary has achieved it. While the song is solid and of good quality (something that is often disputed with Eurovision songs), it probably won't do all that well. It is somewhat similar to the Swiss entry, but is even less exciting and is more flat musically. Nice composition, but it will get lost between the far more entertaining Russian and Austrian entries that it is sandwiched between.

Place: 16/18

Qualifies: NO

#16: AUSTRIA

Trackshittaz with "Woki mit deim Popo"

After last year's power ballad, Austria has gone the opposite route, and selected a fun, up-beat rap/dance number, entitled "Shake your bum." The performance at the Austrian national final clearly replicated the lyrics of the song, focusing on the behinds of the female backup dancers. Truth be said, Trackshittaz might not be the classiest of acts, but they do use some pretty neat tricks with lights, which may look spectacular at the Crystal Hall in Baku. It is a catchy song, despite being in German and on top of that an accent that very few can understand, and it will probably do well. It is right after Hungary, which is, truth be told, a bit of a snooze fest, and if they keep their basic performance premise, Austria is probably going to make the cut to the final for a second year in a row. I sure know a lot of teenage boys will definitely want to vote for this - not necessarily for the right reasons, but Trackshittaz won't mind get votes any way they can. Potentially one of the most entertaining performances of the night.

Place: 9/18

Qualifies: YES

#17: MOLDOVA

Pasha Parfeny with "Lăutar"

While I do not particularly enjoy this song, nor its performance, I can definitely see where people might take somewhat of a liking for it. The music is heavily inspired in Balkan music, and that will get some votes certainly. The strange pants, that have become epic on their own right at this point, will probably be replaced by some worse, yet equally headline-creating piece, which is only fitting, I'd say. You got to stay memorable, and Pasha definitely achieves that with his look. The song itself, not very memorable. Actually, having listened to the song twice now (as my iTunes informs me), I still have no idea what the song is about. I just know that it's got some interesting music, and all I can remember about it are the pants. This is a borderline qualifier for me, just ahead of the less engaging Swiss song. Should do pretty poorly in the final, though.

Place: 10/18

Qualifies: YES (barely)

#18: IRELAND

Jedward with "Waterline"

It is almost appropriate to have Jedward as the closing performance of the night. So, Jedward was of the biggest discoveries of last year's Eurovision. Not only have they become quasi-national heroes in Ireland, with the first top 10 placing since 2006, but they have also gotten an army of European girls as fans. "Waterline" is undoubtedly a better song than "Lipstick" was last year, but it is nowhere near as entertaining or 'Jedward-like' which might pose some problems. Having a strong fan-base, though, should allow them smooth sailing into the Top 5 of the Semi Final. The Final, however, is going to be tougher territory, where the song might get lost, but should still manage somewhere within #12-18. 

Anyway, the song is rather mature and unexpected for Jedward, so depending of their performance and attitude this might do better than I expect it to. It's got a huge benefit from closing the Semi Final, and it should do very well overall. I don't think they've got much chance for the top spot, but you never now. Jedward are known for their performances, and I am sure they will do their best to keep up with their last year's performance.

Place: 4/18

Qualifies: YES

Finally, what I believe the qualifiers are going to be (without having seen the performances):

1. Romania
2. Russian Federation
3. Denmark
4. Ireland
5. Greece
6. Cyprus
7. Albania
8. Iceland
9. Austria
10. Moldova

Whether it will be in that exact order - who knows. But I think that these are the songs that are most likely to pass to the Final, at this point. I'd say that the Swiss are close to Moldova on the ranking, but the Moldavian song is just more instant than the nice pop of the Swiss.

What do you think? Do share your comments and ideas! :)