Semi Final 1 Predictions

After analysing the chances before I’ve seen the rehearsal performances, now I am taking into account the live performances up to the 1^st Dress Rehearsal. Granted, there might still be some changes to the performances, but most will stay the same. I give a short description and analysis of the songs, and then what I think the song should place personally, followed by what it probably will actually do in the Semi Final. Voila:

Montenegro

Rambo Amadeus with "Euro Neuro"

This I didn’t really like to start with, and now I like it even less once I saw the performance. First of all, horrible vocals. He isn’t even singing, really. The break dancers are just distracting and don’t really add much to the song , and the banner that they unfold is just pointless. Rambo has a strange wooden donkey (horse?) on stage there, too, without any purpose to it what-so-ever. It’s probably alluding to the donkey he had in his video, but most Eurovision viewers won’t know that. This is pretty much a train –wreck of a performance. And the background it too psychedelic without a purposed to it. I have a hard time seeing this qualifying, especially considering Montenegro is all alone in this Semi without any Balkan support, except of Albania. This goes to the bottom of the list easily. Horrible opener.

Should place: 18 / 18

Will place: 18 / 18

Iceland

Greta Salóme and Jónsi with "Never Forget"

Now, this would have been a good song to open the Semi Final, instead of Montenegro. The visuals for this are amazing – blue mountains as background for this moody song are perfect, and it seems to work well in the hall, but we’ll have to see how it works on TV with the camerawork. Greta and Jonsi have great vocals, and this comes across really well vocally! I like this a lot, but I still prefer the original, Icelandic version – it is more mystical and exciting. Nonetheless this has a great chance of qualifying as far as I can tell, and should be near the Top 5.

Should place:  6 / 18

Will place:  6/ 18 

Greece

Eleftheria Eleftheriou with "Aphrodisiac"

I might have been a bit too optimistic about this in my pre-performance analysis. While the song is still catchy, Eleftheria is somewhat struggling with the singing. Especially the “oh oh ho ho” part sounds rather like squeaking, than singing, but that might also just be the echo in the empty Crystal Hall. The choreography is also rather crazy – so much is happening there. And there is the traditional Greek dancing, almost a requirement in all Greek songs at Eurovision. I think this should still do decently, since it’s the typical Greek Eurovision song with a hot girl dancing around, singing a catchy tune. It should go to the Final, but once there, I think this might get to be the first Greek non-Top 10 song since 2003!

Should place:  7 / 18

Will place:  5 / 18

Latvia

Anmary with "Beautiful Song"

And Latvia. I had placed Latvia before the performances, but now I might have to change my mind. It’s gonna be 2^nd last probably. I just don’t think this is a good song. The music is too synthisised and the lyrics are plain dumb. The costumes for the performance are out of the early 2000s/late 1990s that we’ve seen with Eurovision, and they are not very flattering to Anmary. Vocally, this is very good, and Anmary can belt the song out really well. That, however, won’t be enough to get it through to the final, I think. We will have to see how it goes, but I have very little hope for this.

Should place:  16 / 18

Will place:  16 / 18

Albania

Rona Nishliu with "Suus"

As I’ve said before, I love this song. Rona brings so much feeling to the song, one truly feels she wrote it. It is somewhat reminiscent of Ukraine’s Alyosha in 2010, with the red background and just her as the sole vocal. Alyosha did great with a good 10^th place, and Rona deserves the same treatment, in my book. I’d love to see this qualifying, and I think the juries will help this qualify surely. I am not sure, however, how instant this song will be for people, but there is definitely a niche market for stuff like this, but I think in the Final it might not do as well as it should. Vocally flawless and engaging, and the simple presentation of the song only strengthens Rona’s presence and reinforces the power of the song. An excellent song and presentation overall, and while it’s my second favourite in this Semi, I think it’ll be on the bottom half of the Top 10, but still qualify.

Should place: 2 / 18

Will place:  8 / 18

Romania

Mandinga with "Zaleilah"

I’ve tipped this to be the winner of this Semi Final, and honestly, I think it’s got a great chance of making it to the top spot here. The song is extremely catchy and has great beats, and should be a summer hit on the beaches around Europe. The performance is really nice, too, with great dancing by the Mandinga boys, while the leading lady sings excellently. There are no vocal issues here what so ever, and it is comes across as a fun, effortless performance. I really love the use of bagpipes (partially due to my Scottish association through my alma matter), which help the song stand out from others. A great effort by Romania, and this should do really well even in the Final – Top 10 definitely, with a possibility of reaching the Top 3.

Should place:  1 / 18 (WINNER)

Will place:  1 / 18 (WINNER)

Switzerland

Sinplus with "Unbreakable"

Well, Switzerland has just showed how even a relatively boring song can be made to look amazing in Eurovision thanks to a good performance. I still find this rather boring (kind of warmed up to the chorus, though), and don’t think this is a great effort by the country that’s brought us some interesting songs over the years. Nonetheless, Switzerland has used the great scene for all its worth and the rock number looks rather engaging now. Then again, this is based on the performance & the vocals, so if the vocals stay as good for the performance, this might actually have a chance of qualifying. Stronger than I thought it was! Barely making the Top 10, but still, I think this will qualify.

Should place: 9 / 18

Will place:  9 / 18

Belgium

Iris with "Would you?"

This is possibly one of the sweetest songs/performances in the Contest this year. However, the real question is whether that’s enough to qualify to the Final. I like the song, having compared it to Katy Perry-type of a ballad (I do like Perry’s ballads), but I couldn’t see this being memorable enough to make the cut. Seeing the rehearsal, my opinion’s changed very little, except that the great vocals, simple performance and effective background might help it some more than I though. I think the jury might award this with more points than the public in the televote. Vocally, this is excellent so that helps the sound out very much. Very borderline, but I think it’ll miss out the Final night, unfortunately.

Should place:   10 / 18

Will place:  12 / 18

Finland

Pernilla Karlsson with "När jag blundar"

Pernilla has a lovely voice, and she sings her song really well. However, it is just not all that engaging of a song. A typical ballad, just like Belgium, it does not offer much to the public, or he juries this time. The vocals are not as good as the one’s of Belgium, so this will definitely only harm Finland when it comes to getting the jury’s vote. The staging is quite simple and the background is beautiful, really, but that cannot win you a place in the Final on its own. I think the worst thing for the song is the fact that it’s after Belgium which is better vocally and visually too. This is a definite non-qualifier.

Should place: 13 / 18

Will place:  14 / 18

Israel

Izabo with "Time"

While originally I did not like this song at all, now I’ve slightly changed my mind. Musically, it is quite a simple, yet interesting composition, and it definitely sticks out from the pile so far. The performance seems rather silly and fun, which is quite refreshing. It’s somewhat gimmicky, but the gimmick comes across so naturally to the band, that it doesn’t seem bad at all. They just come off as a silly band, which they seem to actually be. Nice background with watches showing the time (how appropriate!) with the staging make for a good visual performance and vocally this is decent. I think it might do better than what I originally predicted, but don’t think it’d do much in the Final if it qualifies. Very borderline, and I think the dreaded 11^th place is going to be enough for the Israelis.

Should place: 11 / 18

Will place:  11 / 18

San Marino

Valentina Monetta with "The Social Network Song"

I am not sure what I’ve expected this performance to look like, but definitely not what we’ve gotten. Village People much? Except not as good. Not as good at all. Well, vocally, Valentina does a good job, but that’s not enough really. The song itself looks something what Rebecca Black would sing seriously, though this is obviously a spoof entry. Which is still not an excuse I feel. It’s just... eh. There’s a lot happening on the stage but none of it is relevant. The only thing that could have saved this from the bottom of the scoreboard was the performance, and now having seen the rehearsals, the performance is not saving it. The jury will pass this, as will many non-English speaking audiences, I feel. Gimmick songs usually do well due to the performance, not lyrics. Hopefully, San Marino will still stick to ESC even after they do not pass to the Final their third consecutive time.

Should place: 17 / 18

Will place:  17 / 18

Cyprus

Ivi Adamou with "La la love"

Well, I was right. This will either do well or bad due to the performance – and I think the performance will help it a lot. Somewhat similar to the performance we’ve seen by Romania’s Elena in 2009, this is a decently presented song, with good costumes, good background and interesting choreography.  It will come across as pretty good after San Marino, definitely, and will garner some points from the younger crowd that likes the clubbing-type of beats that the song has. Again, I think Romania’s got that field covered, but at this point, Cyprus is definitely better than their Greek counterparts and should easily rank higher than Greece, and place in the top 5 with this. Very good performance and fun (albeit repetitive) song, which should do well even in the Final.

Should place: 5 / 18

Will place:  4 / 18

Denmark

Soluna Samay with "Should have known better"

Well, Denmark’s performance is quite standard, and similar to their national final, if I recall correctly, except Soluna has new cool pants. But yes, this is still very good – contemporary, engaging, entertaining, and fun. The stage is beautiful, really, which goes to the credit of the Azerbaijani organisers, really. But yes, it’s quite impressive, and it nicely rounds up a solid performance overall. Soluna has some bum notes, but overall, she sings it effortlessly and hopefully will perform really well when it counts. I’m still a bit apprehensive because of what happened with Anna Bergendahl for Sweden in 2010, but this SHOULD definitely qualify in the Top 5 in this Semi.

Should place: 4 / 18

Will place:  3 / 18

Russia

Buranovskiye Babushki with "Party for Everybody"

Oh my god. The grannies are milking the cuteness for all its worth – and it’s worth a lot! Especially with the focus on the smallest, cutest granny, who gets a lot of attention from everyone, cause – let’s face it – she’s the best. This is very, very, very strong as a contender, and while I am not sure whether it’ll win this Semi Final, I can tell you it will most certainly be in the Top 3. In the Final, it should replicate that success, I think, since there will be way more countries to vote for them, and the grannies span all geographical barriers with their cuteness. The performance is spot-on, with decent enough vocals and just an all-around endearing performance that will not go unnoticed by the public televote. It is only a question of judges, whether it’ll do very well, or extremely well. Either way, this is a definite qualifier.

Should place: 3 / 18

Will place:  2 / 18

Hungary

Compact Disco with "Sound of our Hearts"

Very good vocally and visually, Hungary has managed to make a rather bland song come alive. However, I still have a hard time imagining this qualifying. It’s just nowhere near as fun or engaging as the Russian and Austrian entries it is sandwiched between. As I said before, this is a very good, quality song, but I am not sure it’ll be able to get enough support with either the public or juries. It never really reaches any sort of peak, it just keep on pacing on and on slowly. Just cannot see it doing all that well, though, it’s a rather good song. Maybe I’m wrong, but this is not a qualifier in my book.

Should place: 12 / 18

Will place:  15 / 18

Austria

Trackshittaz with "Woki mit deim Popo"

This had a lot of potential, considering the performance with the Austrian national final. That potential, however, has not been lived up to. While the two guys still shake their bums (which is great), as do the girls, it just is not as effective as it was in Austria. The change of lighting and costumes has been a big detriment to the song, which while it was fun, was in no way a good song on its own merits. Now that the performance aspect is not as slick or interesting as it was before, this falls in my overall ranking considerably. Austria will most probably have to sit out the Final once again.

Should place: 15 / 18

Will place:  13 / 18

Moldova

Pasha Parfeny with "Lăutar"

Hmmm. I just don’t like this all that much. This is definitely now a gimmick performance and I don’t think it works all that well. Pasha is very charismatic and comes off well on the screen, but the performance itself is just strange. The background is too distracting, and I still am struggling to get a sense of what the song is actually about. The music is, I guess, the highlight for the song, but everything else is not quite working as well as it could/should. As far as gimmicks go, it’s the best one, but I’m not sure if that’ll be enough for a place in the Final. Personally, I don’t like it, but reading online it seems as if people do quite enjoy this. So, as borderline as it is, I think it just might squeeze through. Plus, it’s got Romania with it, to help out with at least one set of 12 points.

Should place: 14 / 18

Will place:  10 / 18

Ireland

Jedward with "Waterline"

Jedward’s last year’s effort was a rather fun, energetic number, which predominantly relied on their performance. The more mature “Waterlne,” however, should rely on their vocal abilities, not the performance, and that’s where the problem lies. Jedward still doesn’t have the vocal ability to be considered really good singers, and that shows here. The staging of the song is rather interesting and has been drastically toned down in comparison to last year, which is only appropriate. The water background is really good, but they also have a fountain, which serves no purpose. Maybe it looks really cool on the TV, who knows? Overall, though, I am personally underwhelmed, though this should still do pretty well and is probably one of the sure qualifiers.

Should place:  8 / 18

Will place:  7 / 18

So, ultimately, here are my rankings:

QUALIFIERS:

1. ROMANIA
2. RUSSIA
3. DENMARK
4. CYPRUS
5. GREECE
6. ICELAND
7. IRELAND
8. ALBANIA
9. SWITZERLAND
10. MOLDOVA

NON-QUALIFIERS:

   11. ISRAEL

   12. BELGIUM

   13. AUSTRIA

   14. FINLAND

   15. HUNGARY

   16. LATVIA

   17. SAN MARINO

   18. MONTENEGRO