Semi Final 2: Pre-Performance Predictions

This is THE Semi Final to watch, if you are able to only watch one. According to the bookies, Sweden is most likely to be a qualifier (1/33) but also to win the whole semi final (8/13), and Eurovision in general (15/8).  For qualification to the final, Sweden's followed by Serbia, Norway, Turkey and Bosnia & Herzegovina, in the top 5. 


On this Semi, I seem to agree quite strongly (once again) with the bookies. However, I am not very sure which songs will certainly qualify. From my Top 10 predictions, I am pretty sure my top 5 will manage, but not quite so sure about the second half of the Top 10... I guess we'll just have to see. But without further ado, here are the pre-performance predictions for Semi Final 2:

#1: SERBIA

Željko Joksimović with "Nije ljubav stvar"


Serbia has had a good track record so far with Eurovision, which was actually started by Joksimović back in 2004, with "Lane moje." He managed to win the first Semi Final, but ended up second in the Grand Final, which was still an impressive achievement. Joksimović's latest, "Nije ljubav stvar," while an excellent song, is nowhere near as good as "Lane moje," but it is a totally different genre, too. It is less ethno-centred, but still has some nice elements to it, especially the trademark violin that his previous ESC entries have had (Lane moje, Lejla, Oro). This should do very well, considering that he can sing it effortlessly and he has great presence on stage usually. The song itself is rather moving, and should collect many points from ballad-lovers. Also, opening the Semi actually helps Serbia a lot, since it sets a great threshold for all the other ballads, which few can surpass. Also, being a Eurovision legend at this point, he is bulletproof for qualification. The song is great, he can sing it, he can perform it, and he's got a lot of people supporting him in the ESC community. Sailing into the Final, and even there, might be in the Top 5, but definitely Top 10.

Place: 3/18

Qualifies: YES

#2: FYR MACEDONIA

Kaliopi with "Crno i belo"

Macedonia has decided to use the approach that many other countries have utilised before: the internal selection. And this time, it was one of their best choices. Kaliopi is extremely famous in ex-Yugoslavia and is known for her great vocal abilities. And those vocal abilities, she surely shows in "Crno i belo," exemplified by the already infamous high-pitched note she hits in the second half of the song. This is Macedonia's strongest effort in a while (I'd say since 2006 and "Ninanajna") and is clearly shows. The song is a good  mixture of a pop ballad and rock, and Kaliopi manages to carry the song effortlessly. It will be performed half in  Macedonian and half in English - an approach that rarely works out well, but we'll have to see. I think it's a great song and that it should garner sufficient support from its Balkan neighbours  and some loose points here and there from rock lovers.

Place: 9/18

Qualifies: YES

#3: THE NETHERLANDS

Joan Franka with "You and me"

The Dutch have had a rough time with Eurovision ever since the introduction of the Semi Finals. In 2004, they qualified but then ended almost at the bottom of the Final's scoreboard. This year, it seems that the Dutch will fail once again to qualify. I think that "You and me" is an extremely cute song, and is rather catchy too, but there are other things to consider, too. For example, that Native American head-dress she wears is rather distracting from the song. Also, the fact that it follows two rather strong ballads doesn't help it either. There surely is a saturation effect happening here, and this is, sadly, the least memorable of the first three songs as is. Still, Joan should do decently enough, considering the song is cute and does have instant appeal. Definitely my favourite Dutch song in a while, but sadly, there are too many good songs in this Semi and I cannot see this qualifying, despite the fact that I'd like to see it happen.

Place: 12/18

Qualifies: NO

#4: MALTA 

Kurt Calleja with "This is the night"

This is a rather unfortunate attempt by Malta to get back to the early 90s. It is such an uneventful, boring, and old-fashioned song, despite it's attempt to look young and fresh. While I love Malta and their national obsession with Eurovision, they need to re-think what kind of entries they are sending. Truth be told, there is nothing wrong with the song, per se, but there is nothing really good about it either. It's Eurovision mediocrity at it's best. You won't love it, you won't hate it, you won't remember it 5 minutes after you've heard it. Unless this manages to have some sort of amazing performance that will overshadow everyone else, I cannot see this qualifying. The only thing that will help it is its draw - it's before three ballads, so that will bring it some points, but shouldn't be too much. Sorry Malta, better luck next year.

Place: 14/18

Qualifies: NO

#5: BELARUS

Litesound with "We are the heroes"

After last year's "I love Belarus," Litesound sounds like poetry. Somewhat reminiscent of last year's A Friend from London, Litesound has a solid pop-rock song representing Belarus, after some national selection scandals and disqualifications that are becoming the norm for Belarus (3 years running now). This is definitely a change from the previous songs, and will stand out in comparison to everything that came before it, which is what Belarus really needs. The song itself, is nothing special. I am not a big fan of this type of music, but there surely is a big contingent of Eurovision viewers every year that go for it, as usually exemplified by the Danish entries and their success. This is a borderline qualifier for me, but having a decent song that has relatively wide appeal, and having a few Eastern European countries can only help Belarus. It will be tight, but as of now, I think they're headed to the Final, albeit barely managing.

Place: 10/18

Qualifying: YES

#6: PORTUGAL

Filipa Sousa with "Vida mihna"

The Portuguese have sent us yet another ballad, and another one penned by the Croatian Andrej Babić, who has given Portugal its best placed song in 2008 in a decade. "Senhora do mar" was a fan favourite and managed 2nd place (best-ever for Portuga) but drastically decline to 13th in the Final. Filipa's song is, sadly, only similar to Senhora in its genre, but that's where the resemblance stops. While it's a nice song, it is not nearly as powerful as it could be, and the music, while beautiful, is not as memorable or haunting as "Senhora do mar" was. Filipa has excellent vocals, but this will only go that far. This is Portugal's retreat to old, pre 2008 form, similar to their 2010 entry which managed to qualify to the Final and end up 18th. This year, however, I think it'll be rather tough for Portugal to place. Juries might like this, but popular support will be almost non-existent, since it's too much of a traditional ballad to gain much popularity and votes.

Place: 16/18

Qualifies: NO

#7: UKRAINE

Gaitana with "Be my guest"

As usual, Ukraine knows to how make an impression in Eurovision. One of the most successful nations since the introduction of the new, post-2004 format to Eurovision, Ukraine has done extraordinarily well. Out of its 9 participations so far, Ukraine has managed to place in the Top 10 an amazing 6 times, including winning in 2004, and placing second two years in a row (2007 and 2008). Gaitana should definitely continue this great streak, being a sure qualifier for the Final, and then raising some serious votes that will almost surely lead to another Top 10 placement. The up-beat song is going to be used for the Euro Cup this summer, which is co-hosted by Ukraine and Poland, and the football theme can clearly be seen in the songs presentation, and even lyrics. I mean, "Be my guest"? Catchy, up-beat, memorable, with excellent vocals, this should do great in the Semi, especially coming after the dull Portuguese entry. This could get points across the board, mainly relying on the televote, while the juries will not necessarily give it as many points. Nonetheless, a sure qualifier, sailing into the final!

Place: 4/18

Qualifies: YES

#8: BULGARIA

Sofi Marinova with "Love unlimited"

My oh my. Now, this is a mess. I have no idea how this won the Bulgarian national final, but it did. A rather Inna-esque number, "Love Unlimited" uses as many languages as Sofi could pronounce without messing up. The song is rather shallow, with a repetitive clubbing beat, and very nasal performance by Sofi, that is mainly in Bulgarian, but has the chorus with words in Arabic, Azerbaijani, English, Serbian, French, Greek, Romani, Spanish and Turkish. Wow. Too much. She is not the best of singers, and the song is not the best of songs, quite far from it. It is, sadly for Bulgaria, a rather forgettable number, severely weakened by Sofi's lack of vocal abilities. This will struggle heavily in the Semi Final, and is almost a definite non-qualifier, even more so than Portugal, which at least should have the support of the juries. No unlimited love for Sofi this year, sorry.

Place: 15/18

Qualifies: NO

#9: SLOVENIA

Eva Boto with "Verjamem"

This year's Slovene entry is Vladimir Graić's post-"Molitva" song at Eurovision, written in collaboration with Bosnia's Hari Mata Hari. Musically, this is very similar to "Molitva" - vocally, as well as structurally. The music follows a rather similar pattern and the vocals follow the same structure as in "Molitva." The difference is, however, that Eva is no Marija Šerifović, who's had possibly one of the best vocal performances in Eurovision history with "Molitva" when she won in 2007. That being said, "Verjamem" is still a very strong song, with very good vocals by Eva, but the backing vocals are a bit off for me. The four backing vocals sound like they are panting more than singing. Maybe live it will sound better. Either way, this is a very good song, and even stronger than last year's "No one," which earned Slovenia a respectable 13th place. This should do very well in the Semi Final and probably (depending on draw) land somewhere between 12-18. Best effort since the excellent Alenka Gotar and "Cvet z juga." Very good song, Slovenia! 

Place: 6/18

Qualifies: YES

#10: CROATIA

Nina Badrić with "Nebo"

Yet another Balkan ballad, and right after the Slovene one! Unlike Slovenia, Croatia decided to go for a veteran of its music scene, Nina, who's been performing for over two decades now. Almost winning the 1991 Jugovizija and representing Yugoslavia (which would have probably faired batter than the unfortunate "Brazil" by Baby Doll), she has finally gotten a chance to grace the Eurovision stage with a lovely ballad, called "Heaven" in Croatian. The song is actually rather good, but not quite as engaging as Slovenia's or Serbia's for that matter. I really enjoy Nina's rough voice, somewhat reminding me of a much mellower version of Mia Martini who represented Italy in 1994, but nowhere near the amazingness that Mrs. Martini was. Anyway, the Croatian song is rather good, but I preferred the old version of the song. The Eurovision version is too polished and revamped that it fits perfectly into the "Eurovision ballad" mould now. That is not to say that it's not good, but it won't stick out, especially after the superior Slovenia. This still has a chance to qualify, considering there are four ex-Yugoslavian states in this Semi, so we'll see. For now, rather close, but only enough fro 11th place.

Place: 11/18

Qualifies: NO

#11: SWEDEN

Loreen with "Euphoria"

And now the absolute favourite of this year, Sweden. No matter what they send, it seems the Swedes get to be the favourites year by year. This year, however, it is totally warranted for. Wow. Euphoria. This song is amazing. I really enjoy it, since it's a great dance track with really interesting lyrics (nothing too spectacular with lyrics, it is a dance recording after all) and good vocals. It is hard to ignore Loreen's winning performance at the Melodifestivalen 2012, which was so contradictory to the song that it was absolutely mesmerising. I've found myself listening to this song every day, at least some 5-6 times and it never gets dull. I think this SHOULD completely sweep the televote, and even get quite a few jury points (even the lacklustre Elle/Nikki managed to get a lot of points from the juries), ensuring it victory for this Semi Final, but also possibly for the entire competition. If it weren't for the performance, which is probably going to stay the same as in Melodifestivalen - as usual for Sweden - the song might just end up in the 5-10 range. This way, though, I think this is the strongest contender for victory this year. Serbia and Norway are the biggest competitors for this in this Semi, but I think Loreen can take up the fight and get a better result than both. Good luck, Sweden. My vote definitely goes to this!

Place: 1/18 (Winner!)

Qualifies: YES

 

#12: GEORGIA

Anri Jokhadze with "Joker"

Oh my gosh. This "song" is appalling. Absolutely the worst. You thought I hated Latvia and San Marino, but no. THIS I hate. Absolutely horrendous. I cannot understand why this made the Georgian final in the first place, let alone why it won. There is no artistic or musical merit in this. It is a horrible mixture of different musical genres, rather bad singing and just horrible lyrics. I cannot emphasise how horrid this is. At least it will make Sweden look deep and worthy of victory, coming right after Loreen. I hope this gets zero points, and it is a serious contender to manage that, actually. I'm sure some country will take pity on it and give it some points, avoiding the dreaded 'null points.' Anyway, horrible. Absolutely horrible. 

Place: 17/18

Qualifies: NO!!!

#13: TURKEY

Can Bonomo with "Love me back"

Last year, Turkey drastically broke away from it's four year Top 10 placements, and failed to qualify for the Final for the first time. This year, Turkey should manage to get back to the Final, but I highly doubt it will manage to crack the Top 10 again with "Love me back." It is kind of an eclectic mixture of a song, really, having very traditional Turkish music and singing intonation, but also a modern feel to it. The lyrics are rather weak, in my opinion, but lyrics are often totally irrelevant with songs in Eurovision. It is definitely different than anything else, which definitely will help it out, since it almost feels like an 'alternative' song, despite being very Eurovision-esque. Depending on how interesting the performance is, this might do really well. From the just song and draw, I think this is a very probable qualifier.

Place: 7/18

Qualifies: YES

#14: ESTONIA

Ott Lepland with "Kuula"

The Estonian song this year is a real gem of a ballad. For some reason, really good Estonian ballads always sound very mystical and beautiful to me. As if they are from another world, almost. Urban Symphony's "Randajad" was my all-time favourite Estonian Eurovision song, and "Kuula" follows it closely. Ott has a lovely voice and performs the song beautifully, and I cannot see anything else but a qualification for Estonia. The juries should eat this up, as will many ballad lovers, I'm sure. Once it's in the Final, it'll be hard to place well, but at least it will qualify. Good effort, Estonia!

Place: 8/18

Qualifies: YES

#15: SLOVAKIA

Max Jason Mai with "Don't close your eyes"

I'm usually not a fan of strong rock/metal songs, and I am not favourite of the Slovakian entry either. Too much is happening with the song, both in music and vocal performance. And by too  much, I mean too loud and too much screaming. I know many people like this, but it reminds me of a bad Terrasbetoni (Finland 2008) or Lordi (Finland 2006). At least Terrasbetoni had a good song, while this is just not that good. It really goes on my nerves, as a matter of fact, and I have a rather hard time imagining this getting many (or even any) points this year. Slovakia has had an unfortunate history with Eurovision, and it's not going to get any better now, unless Max manages to make some sort of insane performance as Lordi did. That, however is highly unlikely, just as the idea of the song qualifying is. The reason why this is last, and not Georgia, is based solely on my opinion that Georgia at least has the 'ridiculous/entertaining' factor going for it, while Slovakia doesn't have that. Better luck next time!

Place: 18/18

Qualifies: NO

#16: NORWAY

Tooji with "Stay"

Just like with Sweden, the Norwegian song is always an early fan-favourite, partially due to the magnitude of popularity of ESC in Norway and their own national final. This year, I think, this is rather warranted for. While many compare Tooji to Sweden's Eric Saade, I think Tooji is superior to Saade. For one, he can actually sing well. And he can move better. And he has a better song. Does this mean Tooji will do better than Eric? Probably not. But it does mean that Tooji has an excellent song in his hands and should do very well for Norway this year, after last year's failed attempt to qualify to the Final. I don't think Tooji is real competition to Loreen, but I'd put him in a second position, rather close to Serbia's third. The eastern feel to the music will definitely help with getting some points from the Balkans/Turkey/Caucasus, while many others will just vote for a good dance song. Of course, he will get the groupie vote too, he is very cute after all. The juries might weight this down, however, especially in the Final. I think it could do Top 10 in the final, but more realistically probably 10-15. We'll see. Either way, it's a very good dance recording, with good vocals and good moves (they'll probably stay with a similar performance concept, since it's a dance song) -- all good!

Place: 2/18

Qualifies: YES

#17: BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Maya Sar with "Korake ti znam"

Putting aside the fact that I am Bosnian myself, I think it's fair to say that Bosnia and Herzegovina has become one of the more respectable Eurovision participants in the last 5 years or so. Due to its internal selection it always presents songs of very good quality, which is reflective in the often Top 10 rankings that the country gets. Maya Sar's song is no exception to the quality of the songs. As a matter of fact, this might be the best song from Bosnia since 2007 and "Rijeka bez imena" which managed 11th place. It is a haunting ballad with excellent music and lyrics, both penned by Maya herself. While it is not very instant, it becomes better and better with each listening. Maya's vocals are amazingly beautiful and clear, and are very engaging and soothing. As I said, it is not very instant, and that might hurt the song in Eurovision. However, having five ex-Yugoslavian countries in this semi, plus Turkey (always gives Bosnia high points), and Germany and France, which are full of Bosnians, this seems like a 100% qualifier. I am sure Maya will have a rather simple performance, which will make the song stick out right after Norway's "Stay." Excellent song. 12 points for Bosnia! :)

Place: 5/18

Qualifies: YES

#18: LITHUANIA

Donny Montell with "Love is blind"

Donny has apparently tried to go to Eurovision quite a few times now, and has finally managed. However, just like most of the songs Lithuania sends, this is not a song I enjoy at all. I am still a bit resentful about their qualification to the Final last year, with what was possibly the most boring song ever to grace the Eurovision stage. Nonetheless, "Love is blind" is much better than the Lithuanian effort last year, but that doesn't mean much. It is rather forgettable, and despite its interesting switch from ballad to dance ballad, it does not do much to improve the relatively weak impression. This will get some points, but I cannot see this passing, since it's not too engaging for the public, but also nowhere nearly good enough to get many jury votes. Lithuania is (hopefully!) sitting out this year's Final.

Place: 13/18

Qualifies: NO

So, these are my rankings for the songs, without taking into account the performances itself. I will publish my rankings including the performance and rehearsal evaluations and predict the actual qualifiers for the two Semi Finals. For now, the Top 10 of the Semi Final 2 are:

1. Sweden
2. Norway
3. Serbia
4. Ukraine
5. Bosnia & Herzegovina
6. Slovenia
7. Turkey
8. Estonia
9. FYR Macedonia
10. Belarus

Aaaand, out! :)